Monday, June 29, 2020
Election polling is one of the few campaign norms still intact during the pandemic. What are they telling us about the race, and has polling changed since Donald Trump's 2016 Electoral College surprise?
The latest polling, both nationally and in battleground states such as North Carolina, paints a bleak outlook for Trump's re-election prospects. FiveThirtyEight says Trump is in the worst position for an incumbent since Jimmy Carter in 1980.
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) June 26, 2020
For several months, Joe Biden has led by varying margins. A New York Times poll has Trump 14 points behind Biden nationally, and lagging in the key states he carried in 2016.
New polls suggest that Joe Biden is gaining strength in six states likely to determine the outcome of the election. https://t.co/eSFbidJw7R
— The Upshot (@UpshotNYT) June 25, 2020
But there are still a little more than four months until Election Day, and a lead in June could be a distant memory in November. Just ask Michael Dukakis. And polls still have their doubters after 2016's results.
Jason Husser, Elon University, associate professor of political science and policy studies, director of the Elon Poll
Natalie Jackson, Public Religion Research Institute, research director (@nataliemj10)