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Looking ahead to run-off elections

http://66.225.205.104/JR20100506.mp3

Tuesday's Republican primary in the 8th Congressional District came up too close to call. Tim D'Annunzio and Harold Johnson will face a run-off election on June 22nd. The outcome for Democrats in the district was more predictable, but still held a surprise. Going into the Republican Primary, Tim D'Annunzio spent five times as much money on his campaign as any of his competitors. So Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer says D'Annunzio was bound to do well. D'Annunzio's opponent in the Republican run-off will be Harold Johnson. He spent just $150,000 to D'Annunzio's $1 million. But Johnson had the advantage of name recognition as a veteran TV sportscaster. Bitzer says Johnson and D'Annunzio split the district's votes right down the middle. Johnson won basically the western half of the district - every county where his former TV station WSOC broadcasts. D'annunzio won the eastern part of the district. "It's gonna be a tight primary," says Bitzer. Money will be crucial. "D'Annunzio certainly has shown he's willing to spend whatever it takes to try to win this election," says Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling. "At the same time it seems likely to me that other Republican candidates will probably end up endorsing Johnson as a more mainstream alternative." Jensen says D'Annunzio's outspokenness and controversial fundraisers featuring machine guns could make him a risky candidate for the Republican Party to pit against incumbent Congressman Larry Kissell. But the Democratic primary election also proved Kissell is more vulnerable than Jensen and many others thought. Kissell's opponent was a newcomer with no experience or money who took nearly 40 percent of the primary votes. Congressman Heath Shuler's primary had a similar outcome in the 11th district. "Clearly a lot of Democrats are angry at Kissell and Shuler for voting against the health care bill," says Jensen. Whether those Democrats will carry their protest vote forward to the general election remains to be seen. "But the biggest surprise of the election night in North Carolina was how weakly those two incumbents performed in their primaries," says Jensen. As a result, Jensen says the effort by several labor unions to get a third party challenger on the November ballot is now a more serious threat to Kissell's re-election. Democrats run-off in Senate Race, too Incumbent Republican Richard Burr won't know his main rival for re-election to the U.S. Senate until next month. Neither North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, nor former State Senator Cal Cunningham got 40 percent of the vote to win the Democratic nomination Tuesday night and will face a run-off on June 22. Public Policy Polling data suggests Marshall has the advantage because of her name recognition and appeal with African American voters. But Cunningham was recruited by the National Democratic Party to run for Senate because of his moderate views and military background. UNC Charlotte political science professor Eric Heberlig says Cunningham would likely pose a bigger threat to Burr in November because he's more of a "non-traditional Democrat." "His challenge is that in a primary, you're appealing to traditional Democrats," adds Heberlig. Marshall beat Cunningham by nine percentage points. Heberlig and other political analysts agree Cunningham will need more vocal support and financial backing from the Democratic Party to overcome Marshall's lead in the run-off. He'll also need a stronger showing from Democratic voters: Statewide turnout for yesterday's primary was only 14 percent.