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Science & Environment

How To See The Future (No Crystal Ball Needed)

Why are some warnings heard, while others are ignored?

After a disaster happens, we want to know, could something have been done to avoid it? Did anyone see this coming?

Many times, the answer is yes. There was a person — or many people — who spotted a looming crisis and tried to warn those in power. So why didn't the warnings lead to action?

This week on Hidden Brain,we look into the psychology of warnings. Plus, we'll learn why ordinary people can sometimes do a better job of predicting the future than the so-called experts. They're the subject of the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, co-authored by psychologist Phil Tetlock and journalist Dan Gardner.

Additional Resources:

  • Christoph Meyer and Florian Otto,"How to Warn: 'Outside-in Warnings' of Western Governments about Violent Conflict and Mass Atrocities," Media, War & Conflict
  • Andrew Natsios, Sudan, South Sudan, and Darfur
  • Translations of Aeschylus' Agamemnon and Euripides' Trojan Women in The Greek Plays
  • Copyright 2020 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.