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As hurricane season begins, experts predict below-average activity in the Atlantic
By Zachary Turner
June 1, 2026 at 1:41 PM EDT
June 1 marks the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season — and if forecasters are right, it could be a quiet one.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently predicted a below-average season with 8-14 named storms. That includes any tropical storm with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. Of those, NOAA forecasts that only 3-6 will become hurricanes.
The forecast aligns with other experts’ analyses, which say that El Niño conditions will likely dampen hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Still, Rick Luettich, director of UNC’s Institute of Marine Sciences, says it only takes one storm to make it an active hurricane season for North Carolina:
“Statistics aside, I think that one doesn't want to let their guard down. If you're in a hurricane-prone area, take the potential seriously, and just prepare,” Luettich said.
The federal administration said it is implementing new technologies, including drones and artificial intelligence, to produce more accurate forecasts. Luettich said he saw at least one AI hurricane track last year that performed well, but that doesn’t eliminate the need for human intuition.
“Models are not forecasters,” Luettich said. “There's still a role for well-trained individuals to be using guidance from models, and those models can be both AI-based and physics-based, but it's still important to have humans in the loop for the foreseeable future.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently predicted a below-average season with 8-14 named storms. That includes any tropical storm with winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. Of those, NOAA forecasts that only 3-6 will become hurricanes.
The forecast aligns with other experts’ analyses, which say that El Niño conditions will likely dampen hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Still, Rick Luettich, director of UNC’s Institute of Marine Sciences, says it only takes one storm to make it an active hurricane season for North Carolina:
“Statistics aside, I think that one doesn't want to let their guard down. If you're in a hurricane-prone area, take the potential seriously, and just prepare,” Luettich said.
The federal administration said it is implementing new technologies, including drones and artificial intelligence, to produce more accurate forecasts. Luettich said he saw at least one AI hurricane track last year that performed well, but that doesn’t eliminate the need for human intuition.
“Models are not forecasters,” Luettich said. “There's still a role for well-trained individuals to be using guidance from models, and those models can be both AI-based and physics-based, but it's still important to have humans in the loop for the foreseeable future.”