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CATS says questions about made-up data are false, but doesn't address problems in detail

Ridership on the Lynx Blue Line increased by 86 percent from March 2022 from March 2021.
WFAE
The Charlotte Area Transit System changed its ridership projections for the proposed Silver Line over the course of six months.

In response to a WFAE article about the proposed $8 billion Silver Line light rail, the Charlotte Area Transit System said Monday that it did not “misrepresent the project analysis or make up data” — but the transit system did not address multiple problems raised in the article.

CATS wrote in a letter to elected officials that the article “attempts to undermine staff's credibility with this public attack and damages their professional reputation.” It also said the transit system was “blindsided” by what it said was an “inappropriate attack-oriented nature of this article.”

The issue is about how the Silver Line from Matthews to the airport should pass through uptown.

In June 2022, CATS said that a route using existing Lynx Blue Line and Gold Line streetcar tracks would have the most riders by 2050 and the most economic development potential. It also said it would be the least expensive, saving $1 billion.

But six months later, CATS reversed itself.

It now favored a route that loops around the heart of uptown by following the Brookshire Freeway and turning west near Graham Street.

CATS Silver Line project manager Andy Mock told elected officials that the route would have the most riders by 2050 and the most economic development potential. It also diminished the potential savings of the line that used the Blue Line and Gold Line tracks, saying it would only save $500 or $600 million.

The WFAE story noted how CATS said the route that uses the Blue Line and Gold Line tracks was projected in June to have 20% more riders in 2050 than the route that loops around the city.

But when CATS made a new presentation in January, it said the route that used the Blue Line tracks would have 3% fewer riders.

CATS acknowledged making two errors in its presentations to Charlotte City Council’s transportation committee.

One error was putting the wrong ridership numbers in a presentation. The mistake showed that the route that loops around uptown had the most riders by 2050. In fact, it had the least, although the difference wasn’t large.

CATS said it was a minor mistake and didn’t change the overall analysis.

The other error was an incorrect map showing the walkability and redevelopment area of the different routes. CATS acknowledged that was a mistake, but it said the underlying analysis was correct.

But the letter did not address other questions raised by the WFAE article.

For instance, the consultant who did the ridership analysis, WSP, only did an analysis for half of the Silver Line. Former CATS Chief Executive Ron Tober said that was a mistake because the transit system needs to understand how the entire line works together. That also allowed CATS to make the route that loops around the city appear to be a better option.

In a presentation to City Council in January, CATS did not say it was studying only the first phase of the line.

CATS was also using ridership projections for 2050, which would not be allowed by the Federal Transit Administration. When deciding whether to fund a project, the federal government only allows transit systems to go 20 years into the future because anything past that is too speculative.

WFAE also questioned the consultant’s decision in December to adjust the ridership projections based on changes to the bus network.

In an internal presentation to CATS, the consultant, WSP, showed in detail how the changes would impact the route that loops around the city, as well as a route that would only use the Gold Line tracks.

But WSP provided no information as to how the bus changes would impact the route that uses the Blue Line tracks.

The changes to the bus network made the route that loops around the city appear to be a better option than the route that would use Blue Line and Gold Line tracks.

Mock told WFAE that the consultant adjusted that information for the Blue Line and Gold Line route later, and the changes were reflected in the final presentation to the City Council in January.

But it doesn’t appear that happened. The ridership numbers for the route that uses the Blue Line and Gold Line tracks didn’t change from December to January.

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Steve Harrison is WFAE's politics and government reporter. Prior to joining WFAE, Steve worked at the Charlotte Observer, where he started on the business desk, then covered politics extensively as the Observer’s lead city government reporter. Steve also spent 10 years with the Miami Herald. His work has appeared in The Washington Post, the Sporting News and Sports Illustrated.