With the national unemployment rate still sitting at 4.2% — and even lower at 3.7% in North Carolina — economists say the job market is nevertheless a mixed bag for people seeking employment. Companies are adding jobs, but at the same rate as past years.
“Companies are not doing what they’ve done for the past several years, which is stockpiling labor. Call it labor-hoarding," said UNC Charlotte economics professor John Connaughton.
Connaughton, whose specialty is economic forecasting, said businesses used to hire more qualified workers than they needed so they wouldn’t be left short-staffed in the event of turnover.
“We’re starting to see that slow now,” Connaughton said. “I think by the second half of the year, that will be pretty much gone. There won’t be labor-hoarding anymore.”
If this trend continues, Connaughton says he “wouldn’t be surprised to see the labor unemployment rate rise,” but he believes it would be only a “slight” increase.
While some businesses have added jobs, other companies are announcing layoffs—even Carowinds in Charlotte at the start of the busy summer season. Experts say the reasons vary from economic uncertainty and business restructuring to tech innovation.
Those who are unemployed have been confronting confusing forces.
Unemployed for a year and still searching
“I applied to probably about 100 jobs since last June and I have managed to get about five interviews,” said Scott Braun, a marketing manager who was laid off a year ago. “It has been a rollercoaster for sure. You go through the emotions of self-doubt. The impostor syndrome takes over. You question yourself. You doubt yourself.”
When the IT services company in Matthews, where he worked for 17 years, downsized, Braun was confident he would find a new job in three months. But despite updating his resume, working with a career coach, spending hours searching job boards and social media for open positions, taking courses to learn new skills, and intensifying networking, the 57-year-old husband and father of two couldn’t land a job.
“From what I understand, about half the jobs listed out there just aren’t even real,” Scott said. “And just the sheer number of people that are out there applying. You look at LinkedIn and you go to apply to a job, and there are hundreds and hundreds of people that have already applied.”
Recent college grads
Bryce Jackson, who lives in Concord, majored in business management with a focus on Human Resources management at East Carolina University in Greenville. He and other recent college graduates are also facing difficulties in this job market. Jackson says he started looking for a job in January, before he graduated.
“I wanted to have something set up by the time I graduated (in May), so I’ve been applying for a long time,” he said.
Ideally, Jackson would like to find an entry-level role in HR and start to work his way up. Realistically, he’s prepared to take any job. Jackson says, for now, his summer job at a water park is providing income while he continues job hunting.
“It’s been eventful, and I’ve had a couple of leads where I’ve gone through one or two interviews and then never heard anything back,” he added.
Tech forces at play
“I hope to see more companies hiring,” said Michele Dye, whose company, Dyenamic Careers, helps clients navigate the job searching process. “My concern that is growing is really around AI and just reading different reports of how much it’s going to potentially eliminate jobs.”
She says artificial intelligence is finally making its presence felt. Industries like computer science and marketing have already lost jobs to AI.
“Companies are just deciding they’re going to use ChatGPT and other tools to replace some of the marketing that they were doing,” she said.
Earlier this month, Disney announced it is laying off hundreds of workers, including television and film marketing employees. The global icon cites “state of the art creativity” — or new technology — as one reason they’re cutting jobs.
For Dye, the focus shouldn’t be only on people recently laid off. Her concern extends to those who have been out of work for a long time, can’t find a new job and are no longer eligible to receive unemployment benefits. That segment of the population, she says, is struggling.
According to the N.C. Department of Commerce's Division of Employment Security, qualified and eligible recipients in the state can get between 12 and 20 weeks of regular unemployment benefits. The dollar amount varies for each person.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics says the number of long-term unemployed, underemployed, and discouraged job hunters is currently 7.8%.
“And you’ll see people that are taking gig economy jobs, they’re taking part-time jobs, retail jobs,” Dye said. “Whatever they can do — they’re selling assets, they’re moving back in with their family.”
Skill set mismatch
Braun senses a disconnect when he hears the economy is generally healthy and companies are adding jobs. “I know they say that unemployment is at 4.2%. I think it’s far higher than that.”
Connaughton understands the skepticism about the statistics measuring unemployment.
“This is always a problem,” said Dr. Connaughton. “What companies are looking for, on one hand, doesn’t necessarily match the skill set of people who are looking for work. There’s always that skill set match.”
Braun, for his part, has been wondering why he hasn’t been able to find a full-time job. Is his age a factor, or is it about skills?
“Am I just not applying to the right jobs for my skill set and experience?” he asked.
With no feedback from recruiters or hiring managers, Braun continues job searching. He’s especially spending more time networking so he can hear about the so-called "hidden jobs" — positions hiring managers allegedly give to candidates who were referred.
After a year out of the workforce, Braun recently took a part-time job doing customer service at an aquatics center.
“It’s not a huge amount of money," he said. "But it’s a little bit, and it’s a chance to get out there and potentially make connections."