Charlotte looks like it's still overpromising on transit

The city of Charlotte made one tough decision about how to trim its ambitions for its $13.5 billion transportation plan.

But it’s probably not enough.

For almost four years, the city and its transit agency pushed a rail-focused plan that would spend 80% of new transit sales tax revenue on trains — Silver, Red and Gold Lines turning Charlotte’s single-axis Blue Line into a real transit web.

In a bid to win support from Republican legislators who want more money for roads, Charlotte and the Mecklenburg towns have agreed to a new framework that caps the amount of new money spent on trains at 40%. Roads would get 40% of new sales tax revenue and 20% would be set aside for things like buses.

As a consequence of that new tentative agreement, Charlotte told Matthews that the proposed multibillion-dollar Silver Line light rail from uptown to Matthews won’t be built. The Charlotte Area Transit System will build bus-rapid transit instead (think buses in dedicated lanes).

The decision to kill most of the Silver Line is understandable because it’s by far the most expensive transit project that’s proposed.

But east Charlotte leaders are disappointed. Matthews leaders are livid.

Higdon said Matthews had “gotten the shaft” and said he would urge his residents to vote against a one-cent sales tax increase for transit. A referendum could come in November 2025.

Higdon said Matthews was told Charlotte still plans to build other train lines, including the Red Line commuter rail line to Lake Norman, extending the Lynx Blue Line to Ballantyne, building light rail from uptown to the airport and finishing the Gold Line streetcar (though it’s not clear how that last one would be paid for).

That’s probably $4 billion to $5 billion in construction costs.

It’s hard to see how less than a half-cent sales tax — 40% of a one-cent tax — can pay to build and operate all those lines. In other words, Charlotte is still overpromising.

Look at it this way: The original half-cent sales tax for transit that was approved in 1998 did three main things:

• It expanded the bus system.
• Along with state and federal grants, it paid for the original Lynx Blue Line in 2007 (roughly $710 million in today’s dollars) and it built the Lynx Blue Line extension in 2018 (roughly $1.4 billion in today’s dollars.)
• After building more than $2 billion of trains (in today’s dollars), the tax was tapped out. There was no money left to build anything else of significance. The half-cent sales tax now funds CATS' ongoing operations.

Now the city believes that less than a half-cent sales tax can build and operate $4 to $5 billion of new trains — even with matching grants?

Unlikely.

Here are some other thoughts on the city’s transit moves last week:

Federal grants for the Red Line are not guaranteed

CATS

Charlotte is expecting the Federal Transit Administration to pay for half of the construction costs of the Red Line, just as it did for the Lynx Blue Line.

But transit officials in Raleigh were also planning to build commuter rail, only to have the feds tell them they wouldn’t help pay for it.

Here’s how the News & Observer described the bad news a year ago:

Representatives of the Federal Transit Administration told a group of Triangle leaders that the COVID-19 pandemic has changed how people use transit and that trains that serve morning and evening commuters to central business districts have become outdated.

Instead, FTA officials said the government will provide money for cheaper and more flexible bus rapid transit systems like the ones Raleigh and Chapel Hill plan to build in the coming years, according to Raleigh Mayor Mary-Ann Baldwin.

“So we’re told, ‘This is what we’re going to fund, keep doing it,’” Baldwin said. “What we’re also told is, ‘We’re not funding commuter rail.’”

CATS leaders have said they’re working to increase trip frequency so the Red Line wouldn’t just be a commuter rail serving the (now somewhat non-existent) 9-to-5 crowd headed from the suburbs to uptown office towers. That would, in turn, likely raise costs to operate the Red Line.

The FTA earlier this year released a list of the 26 projects it is funding for 2025.

There are no commuter rail projects. Half of the projects are bus rapid transit.

If the feds don’t help build the Red Line, that doesn’t mean it’s dead.

It just means Charlotte would have less money to build other things.

City Council members who represent east Charlotte seem OK with losing Silver Line

Losing the Silver Line also impacts east Charlotte.

“We’re very, very disappointed,” eastside activist Kathy Hill, who advocates for Monroe Road, told the Charlotte Ledger. Greg Asciutto, executive director of CharlotteEAST, said it’s a missed opportunity.

“This really was expected to bring some development, which Independence has been lacking since the ’90s to revitalize that corridor,” Asciutto said. “It’s really disappointing to see that is being excluded, particularly when you have a major entertainment center at Ovens [Auditorium] and Bojangles’ [Coliseum].”

But City Council member Dante Anderson, who represents part of east Charlotte, told WSOC-TV’s Joe Bruno that she is OK with having bus-rapid transit instead of light rail.

Council member Marjorie Molina wrote on social media that she’s not commenting “quite yet on transit.”

She added: “I’m getting calls from residents & leaders. That’s my answer for now. I am listening to the people I represent for the time being.”

In an interview Friday, Molina said she understands why eastside residents are upset, but she stopped short of saying the decision should be reversed or that the plan isn’t good.

Anderson and Molina are close allies of Mayor Vi Lyles, who has signed off on the change.

Need to fix the airport station

Higdon says Charlotte is still committed to building light rail from uptown to the airport.

Though it’s doubtful there’s enough money to build it, Charlotte needs to look again at the location of the airport station.

The current plan is for the station to be on Wilkinson Boulevard about one mile from the terminal. The city has said it would use bus service or some automated people mover to bring people to the actual airport.

I have written about the location of the station here.

If the city wants people to use the train, Charlotte needs to find a way to bring the train a half-mile closer, to just north of the daily decks.

Look for transformative road projects

Under the proposed framework, 40% of new tax revenue would go to roads. That’s $130 million a year.

Partnering with the N.C. Department of Transportation to jump-start projects that are languishing because the state doesn’t have enough money would impact the most people.

The most significant stalled project is a $4 billion project to add express toll lanes on Interstate 77 from uptown to South Carolina. The DOT has said it doesn’t have enough money to build the toll lanes now, and they might not open until the 2040s.

I have long suggested the city could partner with the state to build the toll lanes faster. The city could be paid back with tax revenue that motorists pay.

The I-77 toll lanes in north Mecklenburg — which are managed by a private company, Cintra — generated nearly $90 million in revenue last year.

Why not have that money stay in Charlotte?