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North Carolina Democrats have a good opportunity to win a U.S. Senate seat next year. It would be the first statewide win in a federal election for them since 2008, when Barack Obama and former Sen. Kay Hagan each notched victories.
Next year’s opportunity is favorable in part because Republican incumbent Thom Tillis is mistrusted by a significant part of the Republican base — and likely to face what could be a bruising primary.
It’s also because the Democratic candidate could be former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has never lost an election.
But perhaps the biggest reason is the calendar.
This will be the first time there’s a North Carolina Senate race during a midterm election when there’s a Republican in the White House since 2002.
In midterms, the party not in the White House usually has a strong election. That alone could give Democrats enough momentum to make the North Carolina Senate race a toss-up, or even a Democratic lean.
That happened in 2006 when George W. Bush was president. It happened in 2010 and 2014 when Barack Obama was in the White House, and Republicans made huge gains in Congress. There was a blue wave in 2018 during Donald Trump’s first term, and Republicans retook the House in 2022. (Though the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade that year may have muted the size of the red wave.)
Close to home, North Carolina Democrats had a strong 2018, breaking the GOP supermajorities in the state House and Senate. And Democrat Dan McCready nearly won a safe Republican congressional seat east of Charlotte.
But because of the Senate’s six-year terms, there was no U.S. Senate race in North Carolina that year. The party couldn’t take advantage of its best chance to win a statewide race.
Tillis, Sen. Ted Budd and former Republican Sen. Richard Burr all won their races in presidential election years or when there was a Democratic president in the White House. They have never been on the ballot when Democrats have had the wind at their back.
(And there are signs that wind could be particularly strong next year. A Washington Post poll released Friday found 53% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s immigration policies. That had been one of his strongest issues.)
A couple of things to note about 2002: That was six years before North Carolina became a presidential battleground. And Republicans did well in the midterms that year, bolstered by Bush’s response to 9/11.
That 2002 election — the last time there was a North Carolina U.S. Senate race in a midterm with a Republican in the White House — was a different era in state politics. Republican Elizabeth Dole easily defeated Democrat Erskine Bowles by 9 percentage points.
As for Cooper’s candidacy, Axios reported this week that Senate Democrats are confident he will jump in the race. The former governor is currently teaching a class at Harvard. He’s expected to make a decision in May or June.
Former Triangle Rep. Wiley Nickel has already announced he’s running.
But if Cooper doesn’t jump in, there will be pressure for other Democrats to enter the race. Attorney General Jeff Jackson will be top of mind, followed by Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt.
Both would get a free shot at the Senate seat. If they lost, they would keep their current jobs.
Former EPA director and North Carolina native Michael Regan would be in the next tier of possible candidates.
