Have Democrats benefited more from the counting of noncitizens in the census?

It’s time for a fact check of North Carolina politics. This week, we’re looking at a claim made by Republican state Rep. John Blust of Guilford County. During debate over a bill related to immigration in June, Blust said the census count of immigrants in the U.S. illegally has led to Democrats benefiting more than Republicans.

For more, im joined now by Paul Specht of WRAL.

Marshall Terry: So there are some numbers involved with this claim, which we’ll get into in a minute. First, what is the immigration-related bill in the North Carolina General Assembly that prompted Blust to make this claim?

Paul Specht: It's known as the North Carolina Border Protection Act, and it's something that Democratic Gov. Josh Stein has already vetoed. They're trying to override his veto. In the Senate, they've already done that, and in the House, they've yet to vote on an override. Essentially, it would require state and local government agencies to help flag people who are receiving services while being in the country illegally.

Terry: During debate over this bill, Blust claimed that he read, “Because they count illegal aliens in the census, the Republican majority would be 27 seats in the Congress instead of three.” When you asked him what he meant, he responded with an email in which he clarified that claim. In that email, he said, “I have read that Democrats have 24 more seats than they would have if illegal aliens were not counted in the census.” What is he talking about there?

Specht: The census obviously happens every 10 years, and it counts everyone regardless of legal status. And then those numbers are used to help determine how many seats each state gets in Congress. He's saying that because people in the U.S. illegally are included in this process, and because they live in blue areas, according to Rep. Blust, Democrats have 24 more seats in the 435-member House than they would otherwise.

Terry: Is there any data to show that people living in the U.S. illegally benefit either Democrats or Republicans?

Specht: Because there's no hard-and-fast number the government has for how many people are in the U.S. illegally, there are a bunch of different estimates. Some groups have said it's as many as 18 or 20 million. Those are considered outlier estimates. The numbers we see more consistently are somewhere between 10 million and 12 million people in the U.S. illegally.

Then we look at where they're located. There are studies that show they are in more Democratic-leaning states. There are other people who estimate they are in more Republican-leaning states. In fact, the Cato Institute, it's a Libertarian think tank, says that between 2019 and 2023, red states gained far more noncitizens than blue states did. In other words, red states benefited more from immigration than the blue states did. But there's no study that we could find that showed a swing of 24 seats based on illegal immigration alone.

Terry: How did you rate this claim by Republican state Rep. John Blust?

Specht: We rated it false due to a lack of evidence, and we looked at think tanks from the left side of the spectrum to the right side of the spectrum.

The thing we saw that was most similar to what Rep. Blust said came from the Center for Immigration Studies. They advocate for less immigration, so they're a little right-leaning, but even their report didn't support Blust's claim. They said that noncitizens, regardless of immigration status, created a net gain for Democratic-leaning states of 14 extra seats in 2020. That's still not the 24 that Blust said. And that was non-citizens, not just people here illegally. That's about as close as we got to some sort of estimate that would support Blust’s claim and even that fell way, way short.

These fact checks are a collaboration between PolitiFact and WRAL and you can hear them Wednesdays on Morning Edition.