Early voting for next week’s Tuesday primary ends Saturday at 3 p.m.
WFAE political reporter Steve Harrison joins Morning Edition host Marshall Terry to talk about the trends so far in early voting and what they mean for November.
TERRY: Steve, what’s the headline so far?
HARRISON: Marshall, I think the big news is that Democrats are coming out to vote, and that more unaffiliated voters are asking for the Democratic ballot.
In early voting data through Wednesday, 58.5% of all ballots requested were Democratic.
Now let’s compare that to early voting in the 2022 primary. That was when Democrat Joe Biden was in the White House and Republicans were fired up. In that primary, voters asked for Democratic ballots just over half of the time.
And we can also look at this in raw numbers: At this same point in 2022 early voting, just under 149,000 registered Democrats had voted early. Now, 201,000 registered Democrats have shown up to vote.
TERRY: So a big shift to Democrats so far. Does that reflect more big Democratic races on the ballot —) or are voters just showing up in opposition to President Trump?
HARRISON: I think it’s probably the latter.
U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper will easily win the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and there’s been no advertising on his part to get people to vote. In fact, the Republican primary for Senate has been covered much more in the media, even though Trump’s pick —) Michael Whatley —) is expected to win.
There is a really competitive Democratic primary in the Triangle for the 4th Congressional District between incumbent Valerie Foushee and Bernie Sanders-backed Nida Allam. And there are some contested races in places like Mecklenburg County, where the Sheriff’s Office has drawn interest.
But local races just don’t draw big numbers of voters like a national race.
So overall, this may be about Democrats wanting to be heard, wanting to express displeasure with President Trump, even if he isn’t on the ballot.
TERRY: We’ve been talking about the Democratic side. What do the Republican numbers look like?
HARRISON: They are a bit lackluster, with 28% of voters who have cast ballots registered Republicans. Four years ago, they were about 33% of all voters. So on one hand, you have Democratic enthusiasm, and on the other, this can be a case of Republicans just not being energized about this election.
All this data is available from the John Locke Foundation’s vote tracker, which is online.
TERRY: OK, you compared 2026 early voting to 2022. What about four years before that?
HARRISON: That was 2018, the midterm election in Trump’s first term. Democrats gained about 40 House seats nationwide.
And the early vote then, during a big blue wave election, looks like the early vote now —) 59% of the ballots chosen in North Carolina were Democratic.
So perhaps that’s a sign that this midterm will be big for Democrats in the fall.
TERRY: We have been talking about statewide races —) let’s zoom in closer. What about the hotly contested Republican primary in Senate District 26 between Senate Leader Phil Berger and challenger Sam Page, the sheriff of Rockingham County?
HARRISON: Berger is the most powerful Republican in North Carolina. But Page, the longtime sheriff, is challenging him on local issues. One is opposition to Berger’s now-aborted plans to bring a casino to Rockingham.
Page’s base is, of course, Rockingham County. And so far, 57% of early votes are from there.
If you go back four years, only 40% of the early vote in District 26 was from Rockingham.
And that suggests a very close race.
Berger wants more of the voters to be from neighboring Guilford County, home to Greensboro, where people just don’t know the sheriff as well.
TERRY: So that may be the most fascinating race on Tuesday.
HARRISON: I think so. Close to home, we have the competitive race for Mecklenburg sheriff, we have two contested state House Democratic primaries, and we have races for Mecklenburg County Commission.
But Berger-Page is the headline.
TERRY: And early voting ends Saturday at 3 p.m. Election Day is Tuesday.
