http://66.225.205.104/LM20100602.mp3
North Carolina's economy is on a solid path to recovery, according to UNC Charlotte economist John Connaughton. Forecasts such as these are giving Mecklenburg County commissioners some hope that they may not have to cut so deeply. But County Manager Harry Jones says that's dangerous thinking. Mecklenburg County commissioners have to cut $81 million from the budget. . . or do they? Budgets are all based on projections, the money you expect to make. But expectations vary. Jones has advised commissioners to keep sales tax revenue projections conservative for next year. That means 10 percent below what the sales tax generated this year. Commission Chairman Jennifer Roberts is trying to find an additional $5 million for libraries. She wonders if Jones's projections are too dire, considering a lot of economists are forecasting a better year ahead. "What we're trying to decide is whether that's realistic," says Roberts. "Is it too conservative and could we, for example, project just no sales tax growth, which would in the end give us a little more in the budget? But you do take a risk depending on where the economy turns and how those revenues come in." Let's say commissioners decide to plan for a year where sales tax revenue stays flat. That would give them an extra $14 million to spend. In releasing his budget last month, Jones anticipated commissioners would go down this path. He warned them not to be seduced by money that doesn't exist. "We must not give into these temptations because these are not true solutions to the problems we face," said Jones. "These temptations ignore the brutal facts and provide unrealistic hope for the future." For the past two years, Mecklenburg County has had to cut $20 million in the middle of the fiscal year primarily because sales tax revenue projections were too high. People just weren't buying that much. Jones says he doesn't want that to happen again next year. "If we come out better than what I project and the board agrees with that then we have more money set aside in reserves that we can use in the future," says Jones. Jones says that extra money could help the county get through 2012, a year he expects will be as tough for the county as this coming one.