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North Carolina is now halfway through the early, in-person voting period, which ends at 3 p.m. on Nov. 2. About 40% of the expected voters have already cast ballots.
Here’s what stands out so far:
- For the first time in recent memory (perhaps ever) Republicans are winning early voting.
As of Friday morning, 789,000 registered Republicans have voted early, either by mail or in person compared with 773,000 registered Democrats. That’s a lead of roughly 16,000 votes.
On a percentage basis, the GOP is doing even better, with 34% of their voters having cast ballots compared with 31.8% of registered Democrats.
- Black voters aren’t showing up — yet.
Comparing 2024 turnout to 2020 is tricky because the coronavirus pandemic upended voting. But at this point in the 2024 cycle, nearly 63,000 fewer Black voters have cast ballots in early, in-person voting compared to the same point in 2020.
The Black share of the electorate so far is 17.6%. Democrats need that to be around 21% to have a shot at victory.
Here are how other groups are faring in early, in-person voting compared with this point in 2020:
- White Democrats: +25,000 voters
- All Republicans: +102,000 voters
- All unaffiliated: +127,000 voters
- Mecklenburg County is still trailing. In the state’s second-largest county, 26.7% of Mecklenburg voters have cast ballots so far. The state average is 29.6%. The Harris campaign and the Mecklenburg Democratic Party have spent millions of dollars to juice turnout in Mecklenburg, which has more registered Democrats than any other county in the state.
Having gone through these three points, there’s a case to be made that the race is still a toss-up.
Republican voters are clearly responding to Donald Trump’s plea to vote early. That means the GOP will likely have a smaller Election Day advantage.
Black turnout could spike after Souls to the Polls on Sunday, Oct. 27, a day when Black churches organize congregants to vote. Barack Obama came to Charlotte Friday night. And it’s possible the Harris campaign can win over white unaffiliated voters to overcome lower Black turnout.
A Marist poll of people who have already voted found Harris leading Trump, 55-43, in North Carolina. If that’s correct, it suggests Democrats are winning unaffiliated voters by a wide margin.
