Mecklenburg County commissioners got a mixed report on the state of the county’s economic outlook Tuesday morning at their annual budget retreat, as they work to set spending and taxes for the coming year.
Sales tax collections are up, along with rent, housing prices and wages. But the county’s population grew at its slowest rate last year since 1975. And with so much economic uncertainty swirling between rising interest rates, inflation and the possibility of a looming recession, county commissioners and staff aren’t celebrating — they're warning there could be turbulent times ahead.
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"Overall, economic activity will weaken around the middle of the year, possibly heading into a mild recession or a zero-growth scenario. And then we might see a slight correction with home prices this year as well," said Brandon Simmons, the county’s chief economist.
He said the median household income in Mecklenburg County rose 7% over the past two years, to almost $73,000. Still, commissioner Laura Meier says she’s worried the rising price of everything will worsen economic inequality.
"It's like watching a car wreck in slow motion. You've got wages aren't keeping up. We’re watching it become worse," Meier said.
Here are some more facts from the presentation:
- Despite worries about affordability, the homeownership rate increased to 60.3% in 2021. That's up from 58.3% in 2019.
- The county's population has grown 18.8% since 2011. But Mecklenburg's population only rose 0.4% last year — the slowest in more than four decades.
- Retail sales remain strong, and sales tax collections are expected to be up 6.8% this year. That's 11.9% above the county's budget projections.
- Average apartment rents increased 6% last year. The county's average rent is now $1,491, Simmons said.
- The average home sale price last year increased 10.3% in Mecklenburg, to just under $516,000.
The commission’s retreat continues Thursday and Friday, when commissioners will set priorities for their $2.2 billion or more budget and get an update on the property tax revaluation that’s going to take effect later this year.
The revaluation will set property values for the next four years and, in combination with the county's tax rate, determine whether individual property owners pay more or less in taxes. Homeowners should look for notices in the mail this spring.
