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Soon after President Joe Biden’s debate against Donald Trump, Puck News published the results of internal Democratic Party polling in swing states.
The leaked poll showed a shift toward Trump of around two percentage points in each state.
That’s not surprising.
What was shocking is the poll had Biden losing to Trump by 8.6 percentage points in North Carolina before the debate. The deficit widened to 10.6 after it.
(The Real Clear Politics polling average has Trump ahead by nearly 6 points in the state. One post-debate poll did have Trump only ahead in North Carolina by just three points, giving the Biden campaign a moral boost.)
All of that suggests Trump is a heavy favorite to win the state, of course, should Biden stay in the race.
But it also raises the possibility of Republicans sweeping all 10 council of state seats along with the state Supreme Court race.
That includes Michele Morrow, the GOP candidate for state superintendent of public instruction.
And Mark Robinson, the GOP candidate for governor.
Both have been considered too extreme for many swing voters, and Robinson has consistently polled behind Trump in his race against Democrat Josh Stein.
But if Biden does lose North Carolina by 6, 7 or 8 percentage points, that might be enough to carry them across the finish line.
Not a normal election
Trends in voter registration are favoring Republicans.
I looked back at June and early July. Historically, that’s a time when voters begin to be engaged in the presidential election. Voter registrations for both parties start to tick up.
During that period in 2016, Democrats added about 3,800 new voters statewide. Republicans added 7,000.
The same was true for 2020. Democrats added about 3,800 new voters, and the GOP added 4,500.
This year is different.
Democrats are down nearly 1,000 registered voters since the start of June. Republicans have added more than 15,000.
Unaffiliated voters have grown by nearly 52,000, and Democrats believe there are large numbers of Biden voters in that pile.
The Biden campaign has had a heavy presence in North Carolina since the spring. They have opened field offices across the state. The president and vice president visit often, including a Thursday trip to Greensboro by Kamala Harris.
And with all of that, how is it possible to not have a net increase of registered Democrats?
Fewer split tickets
In past elections, it would have been easier for a Democratic candidate to overcome a large deficit at the top of the ticket.
In 2004, Republican George Bush won North Carolina with 56% of the vote. But there were huge swings in the North Carolina Council of State races, with Democrats Mike Easley and Roy Cooper getting nearly 56%. The Democratic insurance commissioner got nearly 58%.
In that environment, it would be plausible for a Democrat to overcome an eight-point deficit at the top of the ticket.
By 2020, things had changed.
Trump won with just under 50% of the vote.
All of the Council of State races were more or less the same, with the winners all bunched around 51%. Only two candidates broke 52% — Republicans Dale Folwell and Steve Troxler.
Despite all that, none of North Carolina’s prominent Democrats have called on Biden to step aside, as of Friday afternoon.
They are perhaps hoping for a political gift: Biden dropping out. Harris running for president — and choosing Gov. Roy Cooper as her running mate.
