The Census this week released new state population estimates. That helped project what the Electoral College will look like after the 2030 Census.
Here’s a map of which states are projected to gain and lose members of Congress (and electoral votes):
Under this projection, North Carolina would go from having 14 members of the House of Representatives to 15.
Earlier this year, state Republicans redrew the congressional map from one that favored the GOP in 10 seats, the Democrats in 3, and left a toss-up seat in the rural northeast.
The new map favors Republicans in 11 seats and the Democrats in 3.
Could the GOP push its luck even farther after the 2030 Census, assuming it still controls the General Assembly and has the power to draw maps?
Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper says a 12-3 map is theoretically possible, but it would likely lead to a “dummymander” instead of an effective gerrymander.
(What the heck is that? Putting some Republicans into one district necessarily means moving them out of another. Republicans might be spread so thin they could lose several seats in a big Democratic year.)
There are just too many Democratic-leaning voters in the state to make 12 totally safe Republican seats.
Another thing to note about the upcoming reapportionment: North Carolina’s status in presidential elections will increase significantly.
Last year, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris could have won the presidency by winning the states she carried, plus the three blue sall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
For 2032, that combination of states probably won’t be enough. A Democrat would need those states, plus Nevada, plus another state.
High on the list: Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona.
What NC Republicans say about the Minneapolis shooting
Outgoing Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis has blasted the Trump administration for its handling of last week’s shooting of Alex Pretti by federal agents in Minneapolis. His colleague, GOP Sen. Ted Budd, has called for an investigation, but hasn’t criticized the Trump administration.
Other members of the GOP have been much more muted or silent.
Here’s a rundown from WFAE. The News & Observer also looked at what members of the state’s congressional delegation are saying. (Three have not posted any statement on social media or replied to comments.)
Also quiet: Likely Republican Senate nominee Michael Whatley.
