This coverage is also made possible through a partnership between BPR and Grist, a nonprofit environmental media organization.
In the High Country and the Blue Ridge Mountains around this time of year, you might see the bright yellow of tulip poplars and the fiery hue of red maples. Every October, these fall colors bloom along the ridges and valleys, drawing locals and tourists alike. The timing of their occurrence was once a reliable fact of this time of year.
But climate change, especially the extended droughts and hotter temperatures, can keep those colors from popping the way they should, said retired Appalachian State University leaf expert Howard Neufeld, also known colloquially as “the fall color guy.”
“Temperature is the big deal,” said Neufeld. “The strongest correlation with the timing of peak color is the temperatures in September and October, and particularly September.”
The hot September this year worried Neufeld with the highs hitting 4 or 5 degrees above average. He said for about every degree above the historical September temperature, average peak leaf colors can be delayed by about eight to 10 days. The timing of peak leaf season is changing more from year to year than it once did, Neufeld said. That variability could be troublesome for Western North Carolina economies, because leaf season is a draw for millions of autumn visitors.
Kyle McCurry, a spokesperson for Explore Asheville, said the dollars spent by fall visitors at the region’s hotels, restaurants, outfitters, and shops allow Western North Carolina’s outdoor-recreation and hospitality workers to feed their families and pay their rent. The region’s elevation and the temperature changes across geography allow for a very long peak leaf season, making fall the busiest time for tourism, he said.
Fall tourists contribute $2.6 billion to the economy each year, McCurry said. “That spending overall supports more than 25,000 jobs. That's one in every seven in the county.”
He added. “It also generates more than $900 million in local income and $215 million in state and local taxes.”
To keep visitors apprised of any variability in the leaf season, McCurry consults with Neufeld weekly, and updates the Explore Asheville webpage with regular leaf news to ensure that visitors know the best time to get here.
The Blue Ridge Mountains haven’t warmed as much as other parts of the country overall, in part because its forest cover keeps the temperatures cooler, Neufeld said. He’s hopeful the viewing will be good this year.
The region is roughly a week behind historical peak. But at higher elevations, the colors should be particularly crisp, he said, with peak colors already having begun in higher areas like the Grandfather Mountain Ranger District of the Pisgah National Forest. Neufeld said this year, the recent rain, combined with this week’s cool air, may help, and the region may have some pretty good colors even at lower elevations in the next week and a half.
