A version of this story first appeared in James Farrell's weekly education newsletter. Sign up here to get it to your inbox first.
Last week, we got new state enrollment data that raised eyebrows – it showed pretty sizable drops, both statewide at traditional public schools and right here at Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools.
At CMS, the number of enrolled students fell 1.7% to 139,476. It represents the steepest single-year decline since at least 2004, excluding the pandemic year. It’s also a 12-year low.
At a Monday budget workshop, CMS officials acknowledged the decline but said it was not a surprise and was in line with forecasts, which have suggested longer-term growth after short-term declines. Still, lower enrollment means less funding from the state, so the district plans to hire 200 fewer employees this year to “right-size our team through natural attrition.”
Statewide, looking at the total number of students at traditional public schools, enrollment fell from 1,375,565 to 1,347,577 – around 1.8%. It’s also the steepest single-year drop since at least 2004 — excluding 2020, when statewide enrollment took a 4% hit in the immediate aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic.
There are several factors that could be contributing. The most common reasons you’ll hear for why public school enrollment is dropping include stagnant birth rates and increased school choice. I recommend this story from our sister station, WUNC, that explored this topic back in February.
There are signs that charter schools saw an uptick in enrollment, continuing longer-term trends (“Independent public schools,” which include charters, saw a 3% increase in enrollment this year). And we know private school vouchers have been expanded as part of the state’s Opportunity Scholarship program.
And while there’s been some data suggesting a majority of the students benefitting from those vouchers already attended private schools, this year’s data might show a bit more of an impact – it is, after all, the first school year in which the program was fully funded from the start of the year. You might recall the program started off with a lengthy waitlist in the 2024-2025 school year.
At the state level, I reached out to the Department of Public Instruction for comment, but was told they were still analyzing the data and would not comment until that was complete. But state officials have had discussions on enrollment forecasts before. Check out this story from April for more on that.
The big takeaway was that demographic researchers with Carolina Demography have forecasted that the share of students attending traditional public schools would decline by 2030 – meaning that public schools’ piece of the pie would shrink. As for what that meant for actual enrollment, it was a little more complicated.
The forecasters used three models – one that continued historic public school enrollment trends, one that extrapolated data on Opportunity Scholarships that were awarded in the ‘24-’25 school year, and a third that factored in a higher number of Opportunity Scholarships, factoring in voucher applications that were not fully funded in '24-'25.
Enrollment increased slightly by 2030 in the first forecast model, but dipped slightly in the second and third models that took the vouchers into account.
It’s worth noting, however, that the forecasts that projected a decline in enrollment anticipated a drop of about 26,000 to 30,000 over five years (See page 3 of this report). This latest data shows a single-year drop of 27,988.
CMS’ own forecasts raise the possibility this year’s decline could be a blip. In a statement, CMS pointed to this forecast from a 2024 consultant report that anticipated long-term enrollment growth, projecting an overall increase by the 2033-34 school year. But the enrollment forecasts showed a streak of short-term decreases, with enrollment dips through the 2027-28 school year. CMS characterized the enrollment dip this year as “modest” and lower than the rate of decline at the statewide level.
CMS noted the state forecasts from Carolina Demography made similar projections for the district.
One thing contributing to that later rise is birth rates.
“After peaking in 2007-2008, births were in general decline into 2020,” Carolina Demography noted. “In the years since then, births have been on the rise, resulting in higher enrollment projections in the later years of our forecast.”
But some argue there could be more at play. Bob Luebke of the conservative John Locke Foundation’s Center for Effective Education told the News and Observer not to discount the role of school choice or parental dissatisfaction with public schools.
“People want more choices,” Luebke said in an interview. “I think that was heard loud and clear during the pandemic. Parents wanted more control over what their kids were learning, how they were learning it, where they were learning it.”
And countering that point to the News and Observer was Heather Koons of Public Schools First, who argued it’s increasingly difficult for North Carolina’s public schools to make a case for themselves when they are routinely ranked among the worst funded in the country.
