http://66.225.205.104/JR20100602.mp3
The Charlotte region has lagged behind the state and the nation in recovering from the recession. But UNC Charlotte economist John Connaughton says new indicators suggest the local economy will catch up - and surpass the rest of the state within a year. Connaughton's economic forecasts tend to emphasize the positive, but the underlying data do show improvement for Charlotte and the state. "The important thing is that for the first time in over two years, we're starting to see job growth," says Connaughton. Three months in a row now, companies have added more jobs than they've cut. The other key indicator Connaughton sees is consumer confidence: A monthly national survey shows the number of people feeling confident about the economy has more than doubled in the last 18 months. "And this is really incredibly critical," says Connaughton. If consumers start buying big ticket items like cars, appliances or even homes, "then this economy will really start to take off." Connaughton expects that will happen in the second half of 2010 or early part in 2011. But even if spending and hiring continue to improve, he warns the unemployment rate may climb higher as people who've been waiting on the sidelines start looking for a job again. Connaughton predicts it will be four or five years before the state sees a full economic recovery and a return to low unemployment. The upbeat forecast could give Mecklenburg County Commissioners an excuse to make fewer budget cuts for the coming year. Some are already pushing to revise the county's revenue projections. But County Manager Harry Jones stands by his conservative numbers, saying he'd rather end up with extra money in the bank than have to make more cuts next year.