South Carolina lawmakers appear to have slammed the brakes on an effort to redraw the state’s congressional map ahead of the November midterms.
Republicans in Columbia voted Tuesday not to return to the Statehouse to consider new district lines, with several GOP lawmakers warning that eliminating the state’s only Democratic district could actually backfire.
WFAE’s Nick de la Canal spoke with Scott Huffmon, director of the Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research at Winthrop University.
Nick de la Canal: First off, help us understand what happened here, because just last week, the South Carolina House had voted to possibly open the door on redrawing the map. Now lawmakers are backing away. What changed?
Scott Huffmon: Well, overall, the House is always a little more reactive than the Senate, and that's true nationally. That's true everywhere. So the House — the Freedom Caucus within the House — responds immediately to cues by Trump, whereas the Senate is a little more deliberative and was a little more strategic when looking at this.
De la Canal: And it sounds like there was some concern from Republicans in the Senate that eliminating the only Democratic district could actually create more competitive districts. Can you explain that concern?
Huffmon: Right. Partisan gerrymandering meant to help your party is perfectly legal. It's constitutionally allowed according to the Supreme Court. But redrawing the districts right now in 2026, at a time when Democrats are expected to surge in the midterm elections, comes with a few concerns and a few problems for Republicans.
Two political scientists named Grofman and Brunell years ago came up with the term “dummymander.” A dummymander is when you redraw a district with the intention of helping your party, but unintentionally make a district that the other party can win. That's what they were afraid of.
The majority leader of the South Carolina Senate, Shane Massey, said, “Look, we could be shooting for 7 to 0 Republicans to Democrats and end up with 5 to 2.” So they were concerned about a dummymander.
But the other strategic question: what will this do to down-ballot races? So if they create a more competitive congressional race for Democrats, how will that affect turnout of Democrats for down-ticket races?
De la Canal: This is very interesting because you had pressure from President Trump and some Republican candidates for governor to redraw the map, while legislative leaders seemed more hesitant. What does this tell you about where South Carolina Republicans are right now? Could this become an issue in the governor's race or even next primary season?
Huffmon: Well, it'll be more of an issue in the governor's race because the primary hasn't happened and all of the gubernatorial candidates want to get whatever advantage they can, and the overwhelming majority of Republicans who intend to vote in the gubernatorial primary say Donald Trump's endorsement — or if Donald Trump weighs in — will matter the most.
So they want to seem as close to Trump as possible. They'll probably continue to say we should have redrawn the districts.
However, for the legislature, the window for a primary opponent has already closed, so most of them do not have primary opponents. They're not worried about someone further to the right — a more MAGA person — running against them, and this won't be an issue for them potentially being primaried for another election cycle.
De la Canal: So is this actually over, or do you think that there's still a chance that Gov. McMaster or conservative activists could push lawmakers back into session later this year?
Huffmon: Well, there's always a probability, but I think the probability is low. McMaster didn't seem to have the stomach to do it.
In addition to the political strategic issues, there are some practical issues. Ballots have already been sent out to members of the military. You would have to deal with potentially reopening the primaries for these newly drawn congressional districts.
So when you add those to the strategic reasons, again, the probability is low.
