The 10-month saga of the Interstate 77 toll lanes is coming to a conclusion.
The Charlotte Regional Transportation Planning Organization will vote – again – on Sept. 23 on whether or not to back the controversial project, which would add two toll lanes in each direction from uptown to the South Carolina line.
CRTPO rejected the project in May, and it appeared dead.
But Republican lawmakers – and Democratic Gov. Josh Stein’s Department of Transportation – have been pushing local governments to change their minds. GOP legislators passed a provision that will require local governments who vote against the toll lanes to repay the state for the money spent designing the project.
The DOT said last week that penalty would total $69.5 million, divided between the offending local governments.
But if CRTPO switches its position and the toll lanes are approved, no one has to pay.
Here are the scenarios to watch for to understand what will happen at that critical Sept. 23 meeting:
1. Charlotte is the key
First, you need to understand that the CRTPO is not “one city, one vote.” Instead, each municipality’s vote is linked to its population, which gives the city of Charlotte outsized influence: Charlotte has 31 of the board’s 74 weighted votes on the CRTPO board. If the City Council decides to back the toll lanes again, the 11-mile project is certain to move forward.
In May, the City Council rejected the project by one vote, 6-5. Since then, council members have been under intense pressure from both sides. The business community wants the toll lanes revived; some neighborhood leaders and activists, especially in west Charlotte, want council members to hold firm and oppose them.
As an incentive, the DOT told city leaders this summer that the private contractor building the toll lanes could provide up to $300 million in community benefits for the city’s west side, including money to build non-profit grocery stores. That offer shows how Stein is going all-out to push the toll lanes forward. Those promises have persuaded some west Charlotte leaders like Ricky Hall to back the project.
City Council member Malcolm Graham was a key “no” vote against the toll lanes in May. He told WFAE he has been listening to both sides of the debate for the last several weeks, trying to decide what to do. He said it’s possible his decision will be made for him if other local governments decide to vote against the project. (More on that below.)
City Council member Ed Driggs – who chairs the transportation committee – supports the toll lanes. But he said it’s unclear if there will be a new City Council vote before the critical CRTPO meeting.
Unless one of the toll lane opponents on council says they are changing their mind, Driggs isn’t going to call a second vote.
“It isn’t apparent that there would be any point unless we can establish beforehand that the result would be different from our last vote,” he said.
So if toll lanes are placed on the City Council agenda in the next two weeks — there are meetings scheduled for the next two Mondays — it’s a sign that one or two council members have agreed to switch their votes.
2. Mecklenburg County will likely continue to be against the toll lanes
Mecklenburg commissioners have been consistent toll lane opponents, and there is no indication they are going to change their vote. The county has three weighted votes on the CRTPO board.
Commission chair Mark Jerrell said, “None of my colleagues have indicated they want to change their minds.”
Charlotte and Mecklenburg County would have 34 total “no” votes out of a possible 74 total votes. That’s not enough to stop the project if every voting member attends the CRTPO meeting and other municipalities switch to back the plan. But it could be enough to stop the toll lanes if some members are absent, as they usually are.
And that matters, because…
3. Cornelius, Huntersville and Monroe have already said they will switch their votes from ‘no’ to ‘yes’
Now, Matthews and Davidson could be wobbling. Matthews (two weighted votes) and Davidson (one weighted vote) have enough votes to block the project, along with Charlotte and Mecklenburg County.
But the two towns are apprehensive about sticking with a “no” vote because of the financial costs they’d be incurring to block a project that wouldn’t even run through their boundaries. Davidson commissioners on Tuesday blasted the toll lane project, as well as the General Assembly’s requirement that opponents pay for design costs.
Commissioner Ryan Fay said Davidson is being bullied by Republican lawmakers.
“To me, that is government coercion,” he said. “It is political coercion, and it is financial coercion.”
But he and others also acknowledged that a $1.5 million fine might be too much for the town.
Matthews Mayor John Higdon – the most vocal opponent of the project – has called on the city of Charlotte to pay the fines for the towns. He has not said how the town will vote on Sept. 23 at the CRTPO meeting.
4. A wildcard is who attends the meeting
There are a total of 74 weighted votes on the CRTPO board, with members from Iredell, Mecklenburg and Union counties. They include municipalities with one vote, such as Mineral Springs, Troutman and Weddington.
But an item doesn’t need a majority of the total possible votes to pass (38 votes). It just needs the majority of the CRTPO members who are in attendance. So, with 34 “no” votes between them, Charlotte and Mecklenburg could still block the plan even if Matthews and Davidson flip to “yes” votes — assuming enough other municipalities don’t attend.
It’s common for members to skip CRTPO meetings. Having the full membership of 74 weighted votes present is unusual. Is the town of Fairview going to show up?
So, how might this play out?
The city of Charlotte is the key vote. Flipping a single council member from “no” to “yes” is the easiest route for toll lane proponents to get the project back on track.
When the City Council voted in May, most neighborhood leaders were against the project. Since then, the promise of up to $300 million in community benefits has convinced some leaders, like Hall, to back the project.
“At its core, this effort is about investing in the people of Charlotte and the region,” Hall said in an email to CRTPO members. “It is about ensuring that today's children, families, and business owners have a fair opportunity to thrive in one of the nation's fastest-growing areas. We respectfully ask for your support in advancing this vision through the approval of P3 funding for the I-77 Managed Lanes Project.”
(Hall is a member of a nonprofit that could receive funding for a community grocery store under the proposal.)
If a council member changes their vote, their script would probably go something like: “The project is going to be built regardless. By voting yes, Charlotte ensures itself a seat at the table to make sure the DOT lives up to its promises of community benefits. I don’t like this project, but there is no other way.”
We will know everything in two weeks.
