2014, 61% of Mecklenburg voters rejected a plan to increase the sales tax by a quarter of a penny, from 7.25% to 7.5%. Most of the money would have gone to Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools.
Nine years after that, it was almost exactly the reverse.
Mecklenburg voters approved a $2.5 billion bond package for CMS, with 63% of voters saying yes.
Was the 2023 bonds campaign better run than the 2014 sales tax campaign? Did holding the 2023 referendum in an off-year make the difference?
Probably none of the above.
The difference is probably due to what voters read when they cast their ballots.
In 2014, the ballot language said simply: “Mecklenburg Use and Sales Tax. Local sales and use tax at the rate of one-quarter percent (.25%) in addition to all other local sales and use taxes.”
The choice was “For” or “Against.”
By state law, there was no mention of what the money was for. It’s not surprising that it went down in flames.
The 2023 language was far more favorable to CMS. It said:
“Charlotte Mecklenburg Schools Facilities Bonds
Shall the order authorizing $2,500,000,000 of bonds plus interest to provide the funds to pay the costs of constructing, improving, and renovating school facilities, specifically, among other things, the construction and renovation of classroom facilities, the construction and equipping of athletic facilities, the acquisition and installation of furnishings and equipment, the acquisition of land, rights-of-way and easements in land required therefor, and related public infrastructure development, and providing that additional taxes may be levied in an amount sufficient to pay the principal of and interest on the bonds to be approved?”
At the end of that very long paragraph was the fact that property taxes could go up, but you have to have a lot of patience to read that far. And Mecklenburg County voters have historically approved bonds.
(After that referendum, the General Assembly in late 2023 passed a provision called “Bond Referendum Transparency,” which flips the script. The new language requires the possible property tax increase to be mentioned first.)
Early voting has started for the Nov. 4 election, in which Mecklenburg County voters will decide whether to raise the sales tax by one percentage point, to 8.25%. The ballot language for the transportation tax is dictated by the Republican State Rep. Tricia Cotham’s PAVE Act — and it’s a pretty clean description of what’s at stake.
Transportation plan supporters would probably prefer to have “roadway systems and public transportation systems” first. Opponents are happy that the tax increase is up front.
But overall, it’s short and easy to read. No one should leave the voting booth not knowing what’s at stake. It’s a tax increase. It’s to pay for roads and transit. The end.
Here is a quick look at some past referendums:
- 1998 Half-cent sales tax referendum for transit. Approved by voters with 58%. Ballot language said there would be a sales tax increase and said the tax revenue would be used for “public transportation systems.”
- 2007 Referendum to repeal the half-cent sales tax for transit. Rejected by 70% of voters.
- 2014 quarter-cent sales tax increase. Money to be used for Central Piedmont Community College, CMS, the art; and libraries. Ballot language only mentioned an increase in the sales tax. It was rejected by 61% of voters.
- 2019 quarter-cent sales tax increase. Money to be primarily used for the arts. Ballot language only mentioned an increase in the sales tax. It was rejected by 57% of voters.
Something to think about for a Plan B
During the sales tax debate, opponents of the one-percentage-point increase in the sales tax have pointed to Mecklenburg County’s ability to place a quarter-cent sales tax on the ballot without legislative approval.
There are upsides: It’s a smaller tax increase. Mecklenburg County can spend the money however it wants, without interference from Raleigh.
But the 2014 and 2019 failed quarter-cent referendums are a cautionary tale. It’s very hard to get voters to approve a tax increase when the ballot language can’t say what it’s for.
(There is an effort in the General Assembly to make the ballot language for the quarter-cent sales tax more friendly to tax supporters. HB 1005 would require ballot language to say the tax would not apply to gas, groceries, vehicles and prescription drugs, and it would allow some stated uses for the tax on the ballot. It hasn’t passed the legislature.)
Last week, Inside Politics noted that if the transportation tax referendum fails, local leaders can go back and ask voters to approve the tax again. That’s true, but Mecklenburg County would need to go back to Raleigh to clean up language in the PAVE Act.
A clarification: The enabling legislation calls for 60% of the tax revenue to go to transit, to be governed by a new transit authority. The PAVE Act requires the authority to meet certain milestones by specific calendar dates — not a certain number of months from the passage of the referendum.
A Pave Act 2.0 would need to be passed to provide a new timeline for the authority before another vote could be held.
Early voting is surging
Perhaps it’s because of the tax referendum: Early voting is way up compared to the same point in the 2023 municipal election.
Through Thursday, 6,624 people voted early countywide. At the same point in the 2023 municipal election, only 4,324 people had voted early.
That’s a 53% increase.
There are no other big issues on the ballot. Now, supporters and opponents of the tax are asking the same question: Is this surge driven by “for” or “against” voters? Or both? With limited to nonexistent public polling, it’s a waiting game to see results.
Election Day is Nov. 4.
The final campaign stretch
The pro-tax campaign received good news this week when the Charlotte Observer recommended voting yes on the tax.
Mecklenburg Commissioner Leigh Altman trumpeted that endorsement in an e-mail to constituents, also highlighting that Democratic Gov. Josh Stein is a supporter, as is the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg. The Charlotte Regional Business Alliance, which is funding most of the pro-tax campaign, is on board, as are most countywide elected officials.
But the anti-tax group was bolstered this week when the community group Charlotte East came out against, as did the Plaza Midwood Merchants Association.
The opposition ringleader is Robert Dawkins of the progressive group Action NC, which has paid for an anti-tax ad to be played on Black radio stations Power 98 and V101.9.
Curiously, neither the Mecklenburg Democratic Party nor the Mecklenburg Republican Party has taken a side. The Democratic “Blue Ballot” that’s being handed out at early voting sites does not mention the tax. Same for the GOP ballot.
Democratic Party Chair Wesley Harris said the tax is an issue that divides the party. And some of the tax’s most prominent local supporters are Republicans — an anomaly that shows many of the usual political assumptions don’t hold up in every instance.
