The first full week of early voting is underway in North Carolina, and so far, data show that Democrats and unaffiliated voters are turning out in much higher numbers than Republicans.
While many political junkies are predicting a blue wave in November, the reality is a bit more complicated — and Election Day could still bring some surprises.
There were 17,700 votes cast on the first day of early voting in Mecklenburg County on Oct. 15 — a 61% increase from the first day of early voting in the last midterm in 2022. As of Oct. 19, the total number of early ballots cast was 71,885.
But a more astute comparison is the 2018 midterm, during President Donald Trump’s first term, UNC Charlotte political science professor Dr. Eric Heberlig told The Election Hub. On the first day of early voting for that election, Mecklenburg County voters cast 11,088 ballots — putting Thursday’s turnout at a nearly 46% increase.
Population growth contributes to the massive difference, Heberlig said, but the increase also reflects voter enthusiasm — or anger. And this year, Democrats, along with some independents and other voters, are eager to head to the polls.
After a midterm election, the party in power is more likely to lose its grip in the House and sometimes the Senate as voters in the other party bring their dissatisfaction to the ballot box. When the president’s approval ratings sink and the economy is weighing heavily on voters’ minds, they tend to punish the incumbent party even harder; meanwhile, voters registered with the incumbent party may have low morale and could choose to stay home.
“In the 2018 midterm election during Trump's first term, we had very similar dynamics to now. Democrats want to send a message to Trump, and Republicans, knowing that the elections are predicted to go against them, are more depressed,” Heberlig said.
Early voting data from the North Carolina Board of Elections seem to echo this phenomenon. According to data released through Oct. 19, 14.05% of Democratic voters and almost 8% of unaffiliated voters across the state have already cast their ballots, compared to just 6.5% of Republicans. Robust participation from unaffiliated voters is also a sign that turnout will remain high, Heberlig said.
“The question is not whether the Republicans will lose seats in the House or even in the Senate — it's really how many and where,” he said. “And particularly in the Senate, is it going to be enough for the Democrats to take a majority?”
Heberlig also said that when there is high turnout in the first few days of early voting, it’s a sign those numbers will remain high. This has been true ever since North Carolina introduced early voting, he said.
But a high Election Day turnout could give the GOP a substantial boost, as many Republican voters wait until then to head to the polls.
“The fact that the Democrats are doing much better in early voting now is not necessarily an indicator of the final results, given that Republicans are almost certainly likely to outvote Democrats on Election Day. The key is whether Democrats have banked enough votes in early voting that the Republican catch up on Election Day is not sufficient to overcome the Democrats’ early voting advantage,” Heberlig said.
This catch-up could be crucial in determining the outcome of some of Mecklenburg County’s closest races.
In North Carolina Senate District 42 in southern Mecklenburg, Democrat Woodson Bradley and Republican Stacie McGinn are set for a rematch. When they first ran against each other in 2024, Bradley eked out a win with only 209 more votes than McGinn. In northern Mecklenburg, Democrat Beth Elfrich is trying to fend off Republican John Rhodes to retain the North Carolina House District 98 seat she flipped blue.
In midterm elections, which don’t contain presidential candidates, the primary motivation for many voters to get to the ballot box is the next-highest race on the ballot. In North Carolina, this is the Senate race between former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley.
When recent polling indicated that Cooper may have a comfortable win, Republican donors began to focus their fundraising efforts elsewhere. If Republican voters aren’t energized by their top-of-ticket candidate, that may prompt them to stay home — thereby sinking other GOP candidates in more competitive local races.
And there is another sometimes-overlooked voting bloc at play: voters that Heberlig dubbed “neither” voters, especially those who may fancy themselves “anti-establishment.” These voters may be registered under one party but don’t feel a sense of loyalty to it, or they could be registered unaffiliated. Some may have once been working-class Democrats but supported Trump because he portrayed himself as an anti-establishment figure. Now, some of these voters could swing back to supporting Democrats.
“If the economy is now not working for them and they see Trump is not effectively advocating for them anymore…Well, now the Democrats are the effective anti-establishment messengers,” Heberlig said. “...If they want to send a message to Washington that things aren't working for them, what's the best vessel to do that? It's always the out party.”
That kind of anger is a powerful motivator for getting out to vote, he said — and Democrats are trying to harness it.
“The key is really going to be, for those voters, are Democrats really an acceptable option for them?” Heberlig said. “...There's a Democrat and Republican on the ballot, and they have to decide whether in this context, they prefer either of them or whether they're going to just wash their hands of it.”
Election Day is Nov. 3. Early voting is until Oct. 31.
Rachel Black is a reporter and writer for The Election Hub. Reach her at rachel@theelectionhub.org.
For information on this and other races on the ballot in Mecklenburg, Gaston and Cabarrus counties and beyond, check out The Election Hub. It is a project of the Civic Knowledge Initiative, a nonpartisan nonprofit based in Charlotte that makes it easy for every citizen to find, understand and act on reliable information about their local government and elected officials.