In the past, a Democrat running for Congress in Utah would typically face an uphill battle. But, for the first time in modern history, Utah has a safe Democratic congressional seat that could help determine the makeup of the House majority come November.
The outcome is a result of a mid-decade redistricting process that had nothing to do with President Trump and everything to do with a years-long legal battle to prevent partisan gerrymandering. The legal battle ended with Utah's four congressional districts redrawn.
Cook Political Report labels the newly redrawn 1st Congressional District as +12 points for Democrats, though some argue it's even bluer, based on the percentage of its population that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris. The new map concentrated the capital and largest city, Salt Lake City, the bluest dot in a red sea, into one seat and included many of the more Democratic-leaning suburbs. The opportunity to elect a Democrat has generated enthusiasm within the Utah Democratic Party in an era when sentiment for the national party is floundering.
It's also created one of the most competitive Democratic primary election races Utah has ever seen. In a crowded field, voters will pick among four candidates who are all different flavors of Democrat, ranging from moderate to much more progressive and aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America.
"Democrats are the odds-on favorites to win this district. The question has shifted from can a Democrat win to the question of which Democrat will win," said Damon Cann, professor of political science at Utah State University.
The top three candidates, Democratic state Sen. Nate Blouin, former Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams and political newcomer and Utah Democratic convention winner Liban Mohamed, are all presenting different messages to voters.
Why Utah's race matters nationally
The new district is the biggest opportunity Utah Democrats have ever had for congressional representation, especially when the majority margin in Congress is minuscule.
"We have the ability to add to the body and the Democrats in the House of Representatives in a way that may swing that chamber back to Democratic control," said Brian King, the chair of the Utah Democratic Party.
It's also a pocket of blue energy during a time when excitement for the national Democratic Party is low. The moment the district was solidified, King said candidates were immediately jumping in the race and participation at the Utah Democratic Convention hit a record turnout.
He said Utah is a successful example of why the national party should be investing in flipping red states and not just focusing on purple districts and areas they know they can win.
"Democrats, if they're going to be successful across this country, they have to figure out how to speak, to reach and change the hearts and minds of voters in red areas," he said.
Democratic factions on display
The candidate with the most name recognition is former Rep. Ben McAdams. In 2018, McAdams flipped a purple district when he beat a Republican incumbent.
While he's widely considered a moderate, he calls himself a "pragmatic" Democrat who is keen on working across the aisle to get stuff done.
"I'm a candidate who can bring people from across the spectrum and rally them together and win tough elections. I've won tough elections before," McAdams told NPR. "I'm somebody who has built coalitions to tackle some of our most difficult issues."
He's also presented by his opponents as the safe establishment choice. There have been questions about whether McAdams is too moderate for such a safely blue district. During his time in Congress, one analysis tagged him the most conservative Democrat in the caucus.
But McAdams believes the district isn't as blue as people think it is. There is a significant percentage of Republicans and independents in the district. He is targeting those voters as well.
"Democrats aren't going to win this district by appealing only to Democrats. We're going to have to build a bigger coalition. We're going to have to bring in the independents and unaffiliated. We'll even have to bring in some Republicans," McAdams said. "That's the nature of the way things are in Utah."
What voters want
Knocking on doors in a neighborhood right outside Salt Lake City, state Sen. Nate Blouin made his case to voters as to why he should represent the new solidly blue congressional district in deep red Utah.
"I'm a progressive Democrat really focused on addressing people's real material concerns," Blouin told a prospective constituent who disclosed their loved one was battling cancer. "We've got to take on the big money in politics and actually find ways to reinvest in our communities. You know, affordable housing [and] Medicare for all are big proposals that I'm going to fight for in D.C."
Blouin gained a reputation for being a rabble-rouser during his time in the Utah state Legislature as a vocal critic of controversial conservative legislation. But being outspoken can also backfire on him. More than a decade ago, he made lewd, disparaging remarks online about Latter-day Saints, the predominant religion in Utah, and sexual assault victims. Blouin has since apologized for his comments.
Meanwhile, 27-year-old political newcomer Liban Mohamed has gained an enormous amount of momentum after he won 51% of the delegate vote at the Utah Democratic convention. He's the son of Somali immigrants. While the delegate win is important, the party will decide its candidate in Tuesday's primary election.
Mohamed quit a job at TikTok, where he lobbied against the U.S. ban of the social media platform and made the decision to run for office. Mohamed considers himself a progressive but has been called a democratic socialist over his political priorities.
"I'm focused on a platform to educate and advocate for the things that are going to help people have a roof over their head after working long hours, to be able to afford their health care, to be able to not have to choose between their paycheck or the well-being of their child," Mohamed told NPR. "Most people might call this democratic socialism, progressive politics. I call it a working class, focused politics, people-centric politics."
The fourth candidate on Tuesday's ballot is another progressive, tax attorney Michael Farrell.
What the primary election outcome can message to the party
With both Blouin and Mohamed on the ballot, plus Farrell, there is a good chance the progressive vote will split, handing the victory to McAdams. But if both candidates combined win 50% or more of the vote, Damon Cann, the Utah State University political science professor, said that is a persuasive argument about the direction Democratic candidates should be heading in the area.
"It would be wise for future candidates to read this as a matter of a majority of the district looking for a more progressive option," Cann said. "It's really just the field of candidates and the way votes broke down among them that led to this particular election outcome."
Since the candidates are articulating different goals and ambitions, Cann said it signals the broad spectrum of what it means to be a Democrat in the U.S. It can also inform the direction, the tone and policy priorities of the national Democratic Party.
In Utah, Cann believes the race in the 1st Congressional District lays out the choice facing Democrats across the country: whether voters want a party that will stand its ground on policy priorities, even if that means the needle doesn't move quickly, or a party that aims for collaboration — even if that means compromise.
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